Ryan Coogler’s Sinners is on track to become one of the most successful original horror films in recent memory. Box office analysts estimate that the movie could reach at least $330 million in global ticket sales by the end of its run. If achieved, this would place Sinners among the highest-grossing original horror films in Hollywood history.
That projected figure would rival the global success of Jordan Peele’s Get Out, which earned $256 million in 2017 or $337 million when adjusted for inflation. It would also surpass the numbers of horror classics like Paranormal Activity ($293M) and Saw ($180M), while aligning with Scream ($358M). Among recent releases, only A Quiet Place has done better, earning $440 million in today’s dollars.
Sinners, set in the 1930s American South, is a vampire horror story with unique cultural depth and visual boldness. Although Coogler did not intend it as a franchise, the film’s popularity could pave the way for sequels. “I wanted the movie to feel like a full meal… I wanted all of it there,” Coogler told Ebony magazine, describing his vision for a self-contained cinematic experience.
Yet, with audiences returning for repeat viewings, the door to a potential franchise remains open. According to David A. Gross, a box office analyst and publisher, “What is impressing everyone is how deeply the movie is connecting and bringing audiences back. It’s expanding its audience steadily.” Gross also emphasized the film’s potential for streaming success. It will debut exclusively on Max, Warner Bros.’ streaming platform.
Warner Bros. has not issued a public comment but internal projections suggest the movie could end its theatrical run with between $300 million and $330 million in global sales. The film opened in mid-April with a strong $46 million in domestic ticket sales, later revised to $48 million.
Despite its impressive opening, Sinners needs to maintain its momentum to become profitable. Warner Bros. reportedly spent at least $150 million on production and marketing. Additionally, Coogler negotiated a rare deal where he earns a share of gross ticket sales—before costs are deducted. Since theaters typically retain around 50 percent of box office revenue, Warner Bros. must rely on strong sustained interest to break even.
Analysts were initially unsure whether the film would keep attracting audiences. Most films, even well-reviewed ones, struggle to hold viewers beyond their opening weekend. However, Sinners surprised industry insiders. According to Comscore’s Paul Dergarabedian, domestic ticket sales for Sinners fell only 5 percent in its second weekend. That is one of the smallest declines ever for a film opening above $35 million. Only Avatar (2009) performed better, with a 2 percent drop.
Coogler’s deal with Warner Bros. included another notable clause. After 25 years, ownership of the film will revert to him. He will own the rights to Sinners outright—a rare arrangement in the film industry. Some rival studios were stunned by the agreement, but others noted similar deals have happened before. For example, Quentin Tarantino secured ownership reversion rights for some of his films made with Miramax in the 1990s.
Mike De Luca, co-head of the Warner Bros. Motion Picture Group, defended the decision in a recent interview. “Frankly, we’re proud to be able to give it to Ryan,” De Luca said. He called industry criticism of the deal “ignorant and laughable” and praised Coogler’s emphasis on Black ownership and creative control.
Sinners may yet become a turning point for original horror cinema. With its mix of cultural commentary, historical setting, and box office power, Ryan Coogler has once again delivered a film that resonates deeply. Whether or not a sequel follows, Sinners is already making its mark.
